00:00:06: Roundtable

00:00:07: Osteuropa,

00:00:09: a podcast of the Centrums für Osteeuropa und internationale Studien.

00:00:21: Welcome to Roundtable Oslovalpa – The Podcast for East European and International Studies, so it's here in Berlin!

00:00:28: My name is Farko Matavussian.

00:00:29: At Soys we try make sense of political & social developments across Eastern Europe on the post-Soviet space And In this episode We are focusing On Armenia and its upcoming elections on June.

00:00:42: Armenia is heading into these elections at a particularly complex moment.

00:00:47: The country is dealing with the aftermath of war, ongoing security uncertainty and externally economic pressure.

00:00:54: At same time we are seeing shifts in Armenians foreign policy Closing engagement with European Union And more complicated relationship with Russia All this unfolding in region that remains highly volatile from tensions with Azerbaijan to relations with Turkey, to developments in Iran.

00:01:13: Recent polling suggests a fragmented political landscape, polarized society and public dissatisfaction to certain degree which raises additional questions about how meaningful electoral choice really is in this context.

00:01:28: so his election is not about domestic politics.

00:01:31: it's also about how Armenia positions itself on depression.

00:01:36: To Anne Pactis, I'm really glad to be joined by Anna Ohaja.

00:01:40: Anna is a Richard Finnegan distinguished professor of political science and international relations at Stonehill College an non-resident senior scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International

00:01:51: Peace.

00:01:52: She's leading expert on regional order governance in conflict in Eurasia with particular focus on the South Caucasus.

00:01:59: she is author and editor several influential books on post-Soviet politics and her work has been published wildly in both academic journals, major international outlets such as Foreign Policy and the Washington

00:02:13: Post.

00:02:14: A three-time Fulbright Scholar she also advised organizations including The United Nations ,The World Bank And US State Department bringing together Academic Insights & Policy Experience.

00:02:28: Anna, great to have you with us and welcome!

00:02:30: Thank You very much for the invitation Hakop.

00:02:33: So Anna let's start picture.

00:02:36: These elections are happening in a moment where different pressures, be it security related regional dynamics or foreign policy shifts in Armenia all of these are coming together.

00:02:46: if you had to put it simply could please say what is really at stake in this election beyond just who wins?

00:02:53: Yes, I think on the one hand there's a temptation to overestimate the significance of this election.

00:03:00: So i would argue that we should not overestimate and underestimate.

00:03:07: We should not overestimate simply by, and I would like to argue here that there's great continuity as on Armenia's democratic trajectory.

00:03:16: Armenia's Velvet Revolution in twenty eighteen took place in a very heightened security environment.

00:03:23: Nagorno-Karabakh conflict was not resolved.

00:03:25: Armenian.

00:03:25: it was part of remains part of Russia centric organizations.

00:03:30: It was part but the Russian was much more dominant security architecture.

00:03:37: And since then Armenia has continued with that trajectory, obviously the continuities are at the fall of Nagorno-Karabakh and its end through an ethnic cleansing not a negotiated settlement snap elections in twenty twenty one.

00:03:51: so security environment is changed somewhat.

00:03:55: but the fact that Armenia's democratic trajectory taking place on very heightened security environments that story hasn't change.

00:04:04: what is different, in this respect to these elections are very different.

00:04:09: Both for in terms of Armenia's past historical periods as well when we compare it with other post-Soviet democratic transitions the fact that they're very much about promoting the connectivity, or politics of regional connectivity in the South Caucasus.

00:04:31: And this regards... The stakes are very high.

00:04:34: many external power centers are closely watching.

00:04:39: but it is also significant that this push for greater connectivity infrastructure connectivity opening up borders will strengthen Armenia's sovereignty and contribute to create better conditions for Armenia's democratic consolidations, but these are also rude modernized regional connectivity in South Caucasus.

00:05:02: But all of this that I mentioned our viewed zero sum terms by the Kremlin.

00:05:08: so Also, I would like to challenge sort of this misconception that Armenia's elections are very much about a geopolitical pivot from east-to-west.

00:05:18: From Russia to EU.

00:05:20: That is not the story here.

00:05:22: The story is very much abut Armenia trying to diversify its foreign policy improve its structural condition as a small state in this hierarchy of world politics.

00:05:34: But also, these will require revisiting or renegotiating his relations with Russia.

00:05:40: and in disrespect, Armenia tries to emerge as the State that is a peripheral in new imperial system of Russian state a typical normal small state with all the vulnerabilities risks and opportunities that it has.

00:05:57: So, I think Russia does remain significant factor for Armenian political trajectory democratic consolidation trajectory but hopefully we can unpack in later.

00:06:07: Great!

00:06:08: Very thanks Anna.

00:06:08: if i can pick up one central keyword from your talk which is regional greater connectivity?

00:06:15: And maybe let's unpack.

00:06:18: And if we zoom out, so these elections are taking place not only in Armenia.

00:06:23: They're taking place in Armenia but in a region called South Caucasus where immediately the broader regional order is itself being shifted.

00:06:33: So you brought armenia's agency.

00:06:35: could you let it unpack?

00:06:37: does armenias still have meaningful room to act?

00:06:40: In this Region?

00:06:43: Yeah, that would be.

00:06:43: maybe my question about understand understanding a little bit better regional greater connectivity which is a bit of outside the condition.

00:06:51: but what Is there room for Armenia?

00:06:52: Sure.

00:06:53: That is a great question.

00:06:55: So by region or what I mean by original connectivity is that Over the past several years especially in the twilight years of the Biden administration and even before that There was a deepening of Armenian strategic relationship both with United States as well with European bilateral relations, Europe and India but also the European Union.

00:07:20: The key here is that United States has Washington Accords signed in August of this year.

00:07:30: so it's an important component because number one reinforces basic norms of norms against conquest, the basic norms for territorial integrity and connects United States as a big supporter.

00:07:50: of that agreement, a broker.

00:07:53: In that context data agreement helps to bring the region closer to the international legal order because these basic norms against conquest territorial integrity These norms are unevenly internalized originalize in various parts of the world.

00:08:11: So this is not best number one but number two United States now supporting infrastructural connectivity rail and transit.

00:08:20: as we speak, there is an engineering team a company that's right now in Armenia-South doing its work to advance the connectivity over Armenia-south.

00:08:32: So this has been significant by creating this trip Trump Road of International Peace and Prosperity.

00:08:40: This helps to diversify connectivity in the South Caucasus, which up until that point Georgia enjoyed monopoly.

00:08:49: Actually enjoy is not the right word because many argued it's an asset for Georgia and that Georgia enjoys this connectivity but was actually very risky for their region I do argue contributed to democratic decline.

00:09:09: power used its position in negotiating with external actors.

00:09:14: So the trip helps to diversify connectivity and diversified connectivity through The Middle Corridor, because of all this it helps to manage Russian influence in a region.

00:09:27: All three states in South Caucasus are structurally small States.

00:09:32: They're formerly imperial state in Russia's system.

00:09:35: so on their own they will not be able to manage Russia a very weak Russia, which is much more dangerous than Russia embedded in the international system.

00:09:46: And The International System itself is weakening.

00:09:48: so with all of these factors uh In the backdrop These elections and this connectivity trip in particular that promotes more diversified Connectivity hopefully I mean Turkey border will open or trade will turkey we'll resume.

00:10:04: All of that will modernize the region as a whole and enhance the capacity for each state in managing Russia, bigger players.

00:10:14: Great!

00:10:15: Many thanks for unpacking and bringing different actors into this narrative.

00:10:22: I would like to pick up another aspect or element from your thought which is security.

00:10:28: So security has clearly shaped Armenian politics in recent years, especially after the conflicts and continued tensions in the region including not only Armenia-related conflict but in regional ways.

00:10:40: I wonder how this security concerns concretely shape what political actors can promise in these elections?

00:10:48: Let's just concretize.

00:10:50: if you have an example about the security narratives that would be really interesting to hear.

00:10:56: So I think the big issue in terms of security which is relevant to this conversation, it's peace process.

00:11:04: The incumbent party Pashinyan Civic Contract has been campaigning that they are the only Party campaigning on a peace agenda and if they're not elected country will resume war.

00:11:19: so i would say Up until that point, the incumbent party Pashinyan in particular by creating this push for peace process while considering again I think the fall of Nagorno-Karabakh through ethnic cleansing not through negotiated settlement is deeply problematic but also for Azerbaijani state because it deepens authoritarianism.

00:11:44: peace process is unfolding, Prashinyan succeeded in moving the rivalry with Azerbaijan from an extreme rivalry to negative peace.

00:11:53: There has been border delimitation in parts of the Armenian-Azerbaijan border.

00:11:57: you have European Union civilian monitors now stationed in Armenia which I think it's most important security policy.

00:12:05: uh in a region not Russian peacekeepers needless to say.

00:12:09: so all these policies and deepening relations peace processes unfolding, the relations with Turkey.

00:12:17: All of this helped to move the relationship with Azerbaijan into negative peace.

00:12:23: as to whether... So that is an important security consideration.

00:12:29: in addition though This is still taking place at a time when Russia has not stuck at the deeply imperial war, War of Conquest.

00:12:42: To normalize that war, Russia continues to engage in revisionist policies and essentially puts the sledgehammer over international legal order.

00:12:53: And all those factors create contradictions for their Armenian state.

00:12:57: They continue keep The security heightened.

00:13:01: So on the one hand, you could also argue that public support for Pashinyan in particular has declined dramatically since the twenty-twenty war.

00:13:10: Azerbaijan forces are parts of Armenian territory to fall off the violence full of Nagorno-Karabakh even though I do think this particular end up Nagorno Karabakh I firmly believe very much tied to Russian policies but still despite all significant shift in Armenia's strategic culture.

00:13:33: Meaning the perceptions, public perceptions as to what is Armenian security strategy?

00:13:40: Where should Armenians' security come from?

00:13:43: What you can and cannot do with military?

00:13:46: And I think understanding of the statehood.

00:13:58: All of these are tied to the security considerations, which I do think has been important.

00:14:04: Great!

00:14:04: Many thanks Anna.

00:14:05: and another aspect of security narratives as you also mentioned in Armenia is heavily related to Russia.

00:14:12: so... In one way or another right?

00:14:14: Because russia had traditionally being armenia's key security partner for first three decades in post-socialist Armenia but that relationship was clearly been strained recently particularly within Pashinyas government.

00:14:27: And I'm wondering how is Russia shaping these elections particularly directly or indirectly?

00:14:33: If you have any examples to make us understand that narrative, That would be really interesting.

00:14:38: To know.

00:14:39: I think Armenian model of democratization Is very unique and it differs from Georgia's Moldova's in Ukraine.

00:14:48: It is unique because as You pointed out Armenia was part russia Was part of our mini security architecture.

00:14:57: us to talk about what that means, but the fact that Armenia's strategic.

00:15:03: within Armenian strategic culture, within Armenian policies among the way Armenian political elite was talking about Russia.

00:15:10: Russia was viewed as a guarantor of Armenian security actually not on Nagorno-Karabakh because Armenia is still part of Russian centric organization CSTO in particular.

00:15:23: but see I agree here with President Putin that those arrangements did not extend to Nagorno Karabakh.

00:15:29: But this bilateral relations and Russia's dominance the peace process, all of these made Russia to be perceived as a central player in Armenian security.

00:15:40: However, Armenia's Velvet Revolution has been so fascinating because despite being part of Russia's security orbit, Armenia managed to carry out a democratic breakthrough in an authoritarian orbit.

00:15:54: So I do have an academic article on it and the title co-authored.

00:15:58: then.

00:15:58: the title is How To Tame Your Dragon?

00:16:02: So understanding.

00:16:03: how can you pull off a democratic break through while being still part of a patron that is very authoritarian?

00:16:14: So in this context now, I would not say that this perception of Pashinyan is damaging relations with Russia.

00:16:26: pro-Russia forces criticized Pashinyan, pro-European forces criticize Pashnyan which indicates that he's a lot more savvy in managing Russia than some of the other political leaders and other post-Soviet republics.

00:16:40: And embedded in Russia-centric organizations, even though it froze its membership and CSTO.

00:16:50: It still is a member of the Eurasian Economic Union—it has bilateral relations with all kinds of things.

00:16:57: Russia remains dominant in Armenian economy.

00:17:00: All this that Russia created to entrap Armenia?

00:17:04: are now used, I'm going to use this kind of somewhat amusing term.

00:17:10: It's a negotiation jujitsu that Pashinyan is pulling off meaning it using Russian strength against it.

00:17:19: all of these are against each other for Russia to attack, militarize relations with Armenia because Armenia is part of these very same organizations that Russia created.

00:17:29: This is the reason why Putin runs around trying this binary geopolitical choice on Armenia.

00:17:38: You're a dual referendum right now, tell us whether you are with us or the EU to which Yerevan is responding.

00:17:45: we're in no way close to your European Union membership.

00:17:48: We're not there yet.

00:17:50: that's not our choice for us Right Now!

00:17:52: We remain committed to Eurasian Economic Union.

00:17:55: So That Is The Reason As To Why Putin Is Trying To Force Geopoliticized Armenians.

00:17:59: Democratic transition, which notoriously and importantly has always refused—has been a local national affair.

00:18:07: The Velvet Revolution had not been geopolitized from day one —and this is in sharp contrast to Georgia's for example.

00:18:15: In the case of Georgia, Georgia's democracy was tied with the European path And that complicated the challenge of democratic consolidation, which is already difficult.

00:18:26: But when you layer it with a just geopolitical polarization It becomes an uphill battle.

00:18:31: So Armenia so far has resisted this in keeping and shielding its democratic transition from geopolitical competition.

00:18:38: And I think Putin is catching up, he's trying to force the sonar Armenian Democratic system.

00:18:44: we'll see how that unfolds.

00:18:45: but i think the fact that armenia still part of Russia-centric organizations while trying to diversify it foreign policy which every small state is supposed to be doing.

00:18:57: You cannot find a small state that can survive without diversified foreign policy relations, but that's exactly what Putin is trying to end for Armenia.

00:19:07: But I don't think it successful further.

00:19:09: Kremlin and i don't Think they should Be Doing That They're overreacting.

00:19:13: Kremlin Is Overreacting To What Pashinyan Has Been Doing Great.

00:19:17: It's Really Wonderful To See How We Unpack All Narratives From Different Layers.

00:19:22: And one aspect that I would like maybe to bring into discussion is the Russian propaganda.

00:19:27: So there were a couple of reports recently that we see Russia's heavily weaponizing information against the Armenian society, to polarize their society and develop pro-Russian sentiments again.

00:19:40: so could you say few words about russian propaganda and its success within the armenian society?

00:19:46: Is there any risk on the outcome of elections?

00:19:50: because To my understanding, within the Armenian society there is a segment of the Armenians who still believe that Russia could be credible security provider in the region.

00:20:02: So thats why they will vote anti-Parshanian.

00:20:05: They would vote against Parshinia so maybe small portion to society but nevertheless this kind of anti or pro Russian attitude also into society.

00:20:14: I think the pro-Russia attitude are quite diverse.

00:20:18: On the one hand, there's fear that if we do not vote for pro-russia forces and continue with this would Russia finally react?

00:20:27: The other ones are illiberal opposition parties that have economic interests tied to the Kremlin.

00:20:33: It's not about Russia orientation, I think it's totally normal to have a political party that can argue that Armenia needs to have special relationship with Russia and you make their claim as long your interest is organic or public support for it.

00:20:50: So when it comes to Armenian-Russia relations, I mentioned as how Russia and people usually cite the inability of Russian peacekeepers to protect the Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh.

00:21:03: As a failure of Russia?

00:21:05: I agree with that but actually would say that the Russian liability for the Nagorno Karabakh process is much broader!

00:21:17: To those voices, I would say there's an English.

00:21:20: The English language saying I don't know where it come from.

00:21:22: you You lie to me or you lied to me once.

00:21:26: shame on you?

00:21:27: You like to be twice.

00:21:29: shame on me.

00:21:30: So i think Continuously going back russia for security provision now handing armenian economy and sovereignty to russia Would be strategically short-sighted and extremely myopic.

00:21:44: so The level of propaganda is vast and diverse.

00:21:50: Even now Putin has been publicly warning Pashinyan, that's unprecedented.

00:21:56: only one hand Russia using the same economic pressure tactics he applied on Moldova or Georgia right?

00:22:04: And I do think Europe as well as Armenia because they are late-comer to this game.

00:22:11: so learn to regroup As we speak cargo that are Armenian, you see on social media of Armenian flowers now heading to Europe instead of Russia.

00:22:23: So I think the proper economic pressure is quite significant.

00:22:27: But when you look at IRI, some of the recent polling they actually show that support indicators to whether Armenia is headed in a right direction.

00:22:38: The over sixty percent think that Armenia's headed in the right direction.

00:22:41: So that's a significant number.

00:22:43: advanced industrialist democracies do not have those kinds of measures even though Support for Paschenian is still low and I think that discrepancy is very Significant.

00:22:53: so i would say The, the pro-Russia vote might be driven by fear.

00:23:01: But I don't think a Kremlin, uh, fear mongering that narratives are resonating or going to resonate.

00:23:08: simply because Russia is so weakened it has stuck in warfare.

00:23:12: It's stuck.

00:23:12: its waging war cannot win.

00:23:14: this not winning gets aware of attrition.

00:23:17: domestic support for Putin is also declining.

00:23:20: So um and the poll after poll shows seems to be stuck on twenty percent.

00:23:28: and that what is being split between?

00:23:31: it was Robert Cotterian before, now it's Anglicana Pettian.

00:23:34: And I think...I don't want up to predict but i do think those narratives will not be as successful.

00:23:43: however Kremlin does win in one significant way by constantly monopolizing, sucking the oxygens off of the political opposition.

00:23:52: I mean, Armenia's blindspot weakness in Armenian democracy is its weak opposition.

00:23:59: There are no strong political party in opposition because that space is occupied by pro-Russia forces which do not enjoy a lot of support and they're regularly campaigning on pro-russia policies while Russia is declining very weak power.

00:24:15: so i think that is perhaps not recognized, nor talked about as much.

00:24:19: but there's a very significant damage to Armenian democracy and democratic system which then raises the question of relying continuously on civil society.

00:24:29: To keep Pashinyan in the Civil Contract Party speech-to-fire essentially the challenge keeping government accountable.

00:24:38: that burden continues to rely on the civil society rather than opposition forces which are illiberal.

00:24:45: most of them, not all.

00:24:47: Great!

00:24:47: Many many thanks Anna.

00:24:49: and if we may now move to the west because our means foreign policy has also shifted to the West.

00:24:55: so... And engagement with you in the western part right?

00:24:59: I mean last couple years.

00:25:00: this is what we see.

00:25:01: To what extent it's a real strategic shift.

00:25:05: i wonder Because there was also these idea in the air whether this is really tactical or rhetorical shift of the army foreign policy.

00:25:13: that's

00:25:14: a very good question i think.

00:25:15: overall on one hand i don't think even with united states signing the strategic partnership with armenia.

00:25:22: now rubio was in armenian few days ago by about a week ago signing.

00:25:26: Comprehensive strategic partnerships.

00:25:29: so all of that it's good but still an opening doors for military cooperation, If you're a voter looking for a patron, a security provider.

00:25:40: United States is not it and we are not in the stage.

00:25:43: I don't think very few countries can have reliable security patron.

00:25:48: The logic of global organizing has shifted.

00:25:52: Moreover, US-Europe relations are in the period of very significant shifts.

00:26:00: Europe is emerging as a political actor that will increasingly be going to take over and develop as security actors.

00:26:11: United States foreign policy is also shifting dramatically.

00:26:15: it's right now very transactional does united states has not?

00:26:21: Trump administration in particular has been pulling out United States from all range of international organizations and weakening the UN system.

00:26:30: And it is ironic, Russia's strategy revisionism was much more effective when united states were supporting the International Rules-based World Order.

00:26:38: because right now United States is behaving that way except that United States are powerful made it very challenging for Russia to use the same tactics.

00:26:49: In respect of U.S.-Armenian relations, I think what is really significant is growing cooperation between US and Armenia in terms of semiconductors artificial intelligence this type of unclearly deepening cooperation.

00:27:05: our corporation I saw an agricultural effectiveness.

00:27:08: these are significant.

00:27:10: What was missing?

00:27:14: all the language for United States to support Armenian democracy, to show reform which is also weakness in Armenian democracy.

00:27:20: that language disappeared.

00:27:22: Which indicates that Armenia as a state and society needs continue to rely on itself improving building new institutions of democracy to consolidate its still fragile democracy.

00:27:34: I think U.S.-Armenian relations are significant.

00:27:38: they're not tactical or strategic.

00:27:43: Under Trump administration, there's finally a realization of the value of Eurasian continental connectivity.

00:27:54: I've been writing about this before President Trump was elected and the fact that United States previously had relied on its allies in various regions to project influence.

00:28:05: In those cases, for example Georgia was viewed as a pivot state into South Caucasus And Georgia just effectively utilized it.

00:28:13: exercise reverse leverage.

00:28:15: Now you see authoritarian decline.

00:28:17: So there's greater tension of connectivity.

00:28:20: connecting Europe through South Caucasus Central Asia, that's really important.

00:28:26: U.S.

00:28:26: approaches south Caucasus with China in mind and managing its rival with China?

00:28:33: And in that context maintaining influence over supply chains, stability of supply chains trade into transit.

00:28:41: Those are what's driving US interest in Armenia and South Caucasus.

00:28:47: Also this renewed talk of critical minerals, right now China has an upper hand.

00:28:52: Central Asia is a region with extensive critical minerals for the West Central Asian relations with United States are growing, Europe is growing.

00:29:01: So essentially these are some of the reasons as to why United States isn't a South Caucasus and it's not going anywhere anytime soon.

00:29:10: The agreement that they signed with Armenia was for I forget forty-nine years then conditioned to be renewed.

00:29:18: so this all very big sort through agreements that are driven by industrial policy in the United States, greater engagement of the private sector from The United States.

00:29:30: So these are all very significant measures deepening relationship between the two and to a transformation modernization of the regions South Caucasus as a whole right.

00:29:41: so if I can pick up also too central terms from your talk, which is diversification and connectivity.

00:29:48: So now we're speaking about not only regional connectivity but now you are out of the region by connecting to Western allies.

00:29:56: I wonder whether or if this new dependency in a new forum?

00:30:03: Because If it's a step back or decoupling for Russia politics?

00:30:10: Is this a new form of dependency with the question mark, I'm wondering what would you say about it.

00:30:16: That is very good questions and first off all i don't think Armenia or should decouple from Russia some components is about the terms of engagement.

00:30:29: Russia wants full control over Armenia, Armenian sovereignty in the region and Armenia is asserting its sovereignty.

00:30:36: but some section of the Armenian economy is going to be connected to Russia.

00:30:41: you have some section in a labor force seasonal migration they're all.

00:30:45: Russia still continues to provide an important provider on energy so there are variety As opposed to.

00:30:54: so the question is diversifying those relationship as whether this is going to create new forms of dependence.

00:31:00: I would argue you know, So far what Armenia has been doing?

00:31:04: Is proving its position on it's positionality in the global economic political system Improving it by making itself valuable In a region as well as in the broader Eurasian continent.

00:31:19: So in this respect What Armenia is doing?

00:31:21: This is overdue.

00:31:22: This is, Armenia is late in doing all of these policies.

00:31:27: So as to whether Armenia will find itself a new forms of dependency that question it's very much dependent on the strength of Armenian democracy.

00:31:37: if Armenian democracy declines and the government all of sudden does not enjoy public support It isn't such cases that elites become sort of geopolitical patronage network.

00:31:49: so Bukashenko is heavily reliant on the Kremlin to stay in power.

00:31:55: Aliyev is reliant of multiple power centers, fortunately Armenia's democracy does not and Pashinyan realizes this.

00:32:07: It's his legitimacy whether we like him or not.

00:32:10: people have been electing him.

00:32:12: They have elected him several times.

00:32:15: Armenian democratic electoral system is deepening local level, municipal level.

00:32:20: various types of elections has been happening.

00:32:23: so if democracy declines, it's in these conditions.

00:32:27: you will find yourself being dependent.

00:32:30: For small states when asked that question for structurally small state.

00:32:35: some level of dependency is necessary.

00:32:38: but the question is who are your dependant on?

00:32:41: Being dependent?

00:32:41: only United States or Europe?

00:32:45: If you're operating that framework, Europe in particular United States as well.

00:32:49: I mean there's support for state sovereignty.

00:32:51: of course united states has done.

00:32:53: he has engaged in militarized regime changes most recently in venezuela but all In all those cases are called were interventions toppling a communist regime socialist regimes ever democratic elected.

00:33:07: But that's not what we're talking about here.

00:33:09: i think the context is very different and so If you look at US-South Korea relations, that partnership I was just in South Korea for research on my next book.

00:33:20: The South Korean alliance of the United States is very long.

00:33:25: And what is interesting though, as South Korea democratized in the nineteen eighties all of a sudden they're now criticism.

00:33:32: They always debate how much should South Korea be dependent on United States for security provision?

00:33:39: But none of the political parties would advocate for abandoning united states or cutting off ties from United States because south korea has emerged developed within us alliance system.

00:33:53: It's not only the US alliance system that contributed to the rise of South Korea.

00:33:58: It played an important part, but it was not the only factor.

00:34:01: But what I'm trying to say is that?

00:34:02: it Is a Much safer place for small states like Armenia to grow within a Euro-Atlantic System as a small state To build its sovereignty than what Armenia has already tried being the State in Russia's new imperial system which tends to sup out erode your institutions.

00:34:23: Corruption is used as a strategy.

00:34:27: Geopolitical patronage, it's playing out... So I think Armenia has already been through that process.

00:34:33: so dependency means very different things when you talk about it in different political camps.

00:34:39: Great!

00:34:40: Many thanks Anna.

00:34:41: As i'm really interested in diasporas In general, so I would like to ask maybe A question about the Armenian diaspora which Is quite large an inflation for international community.

00:34:52: So I wonder if you could say a few words about how does diaspora or diasporic communities in different continents, in different countries shape the political environment around these elections?

00:35:02: In Armenia.

00:35:03: If we can pick up also maybe Russian diaspora versus US diaspora and this like connected to the elections in Armenia What would you say?

00:35:10: is there any Political discussions political narratives that come from the army of diaspora into the Armenian political political discourse

00:35:19: if any?

00:35:20: So I think, first of all let me just highlight that diaspora politics is a very distinct line of scholarship and it's not my primary area of specialization.

00:35:35: However i would say if you look at the level of mobilisation of diasporic communities it very much depend on the country where they're at.

00:35:52: So for example, Russian diaspora... The Armenian diaspora in Russia right now is very much part of a public discourse in Armenia because there are talks and evidence that Kremlin is pressuring Russian Armenians to fly to Armenia in order to cast their vote against Pashinyan for pro-Russia political parties.

00:36:12: one out three or two whatever depends how you count.

00:36:16: so That's one way United States.

00:36:19: I think diaspora is so diverse, on the one hand you have several what's best described as a legacy.

00:36:25: institutions that have been mobilized played an important role in keeping Armenian community together coherent during the Cold War.

00:36:34: but then there are also broader civic society groups and Diaspora which we don't talk about them.

00:36:41: this quiet voices usually will show up for diaspora conference every other year.

00:36:47: I think it's a very American or Canadian diaspora, for example.

00:36:51: North America is very diverse.

00:36:53: The legacy institutions in particular are very much have been out supporting pro-Russian political groups largely centered around of seeing security primarily territorial terms.

00:37:07: they do see the fall of Nagorno-Karabakh as a security threat that how frame at least and unfortunately some openly attacking the Paschenian government even though he has been democratically elected, whether you like him or not.

00:37:23: But there are also other broader diasporic institutions.

00:37:27: I think our means of economic development have so important in terms of the diaspora investments they're.

00:37:33: such.

00:37:34: work is to IT sector in particular.

00:37:36: now the rise of AI.

00:37:38: All of these, there's for example one of my favorite organizations is FAST which has been single-handedly transforming educational system by introducing AI in various public schools.

00:37:52: In the nation.

00:37:52: that just one example.

00:37:54: so I think when it comes to this elections i think it's fair to say that legacy institutions some of them main ones they have been a summer trying not too state opposition but Even actual.

00:38:07: after the Velvet Revolution, there has been fear that Armenia's democratic trajectory somehow abandoning Russia is going to create security risks.

00:38:15: So they do see everything in territorial terms as opposed to Armenian institutions' sovereignty which is Russia is eroding it trying to erode.

00:38:26: so thats how I see my read on diaspora politics.

00:38:29: Great many thanks for unpacking also diasporic transnational aspect.

00:38:34: What I'd like to do, maybe now a very quick round of lightning rounds.

00:38:38: So i will read out questions and I would kind ask it be very short in your answer.

00:38:43: Do the selections point more toward continuity or real change in direction?

00:38:48: A real change In terms of deepening modernizing Armenia region And elevating armenian position.

00:38:56: But there's certain level of continuity for processes that Armenia has already started.

00:39:00: In these elections, what matters more security concerns or economic pressures?

00:39:05: They're both the same because increasingly in a world economy and trade relations are being weaponized by various states.

00:39:14: And economic pressure is found around different parts of the world.

00:39:18: it's just.

00:39:18: Russia has been practicing for much longer and tends to be much more blunt in its applications.

00:39:24: I would say It's hard to separate.

00:39:26: Has Russia become a weaker or still central actor in Armenian politics?

00:39:30: I would say, uh...I'm inclined to say that it's became a weaker player but does not mean there is no dangerous player.

00:39:38: Will June seven expand Armenia's room for maneuver and confirm its limits?

00:39:44: I think we'll improve his room-to-maneuver.

00:39:47: And the last one!

00:39:48: Biggest immediate risk after elections.

00:39:52: I think it's going to depend Armenia security institutions, whether they can how well.

00:39:56: They can manage a lot of the hybrid threat threats coming from Russia.

00:40:00: but in my writing i always do see primary security risk for Armenia is declining authoritarian personalized petro state in Azerbaijan and alias regime.

00:40:11: so that will remain as a risk and managing it is going to be important.

00:40:18: right now we have another question June seven on election day.

00:40:23: But if you look beyond Election Day, so the next day what should we really watch for after June Seven?

00:40:29: I think that they have.

00:40:31: things will become a lot more normalize.

00:40:32: i think The temper tantrums from Russia Will come down and i think russia.

00:40:37: hopefully We'll learn That the more it pushes armenian the More armenia is going to find alternatives.

00:40:44: And i do expect A new round of armenial russia relations recalibration.

00:40:51: But at the same time, I think on a global level we have to watch for what is going into nature relationships.

00:40:57: That's how the war in Ukraine will be managed.

00:41:00: saying that some sort of ceasefire agreement would be signed even if it was already militarized and Russia stuck.

00:41:10: A lot can happen inside Russia.

00:41:11: so i do believe This process will continue modernization and opening of the South Caucasus.

00:41:21: And continuing with this path, we'll be beneficial for

00:41:24: Armenia.".

00:41:25: I wonder what would genuinely surprise you after June seven?

00:41:35: that Pashinyan may win, despite the low support he has.

00:41:40: I do think it might win by a much larger margin than people expect.

00:41:47: That's one way.

00:41:48: but there is also...I don't know what to expect from all of the Russian Armenians who are forced to come to Armenia and vote?

00:41:55: I don't how this will play out!

00:41:57: We're not going see post-election protest activity But if i did see high levels, I would be surprised.

00:42:07: Because last time I was in Armenia which is a few weeks ago it strikes me as kind of confident very positive.

00:42:14: there's massive development happening in various parts of the country.

00:42:19: people are invested whether through healthcare policies or subsidized loans.

00:42:24: they're getting to purchase an apartment.

00:42:26: People are invested into this system.

00:42:29: so I expect an easy transition on June eight, so i would be surprised if there are any protests or rallies.

00:42:42: Great

00:42:43: and as you mentioned many times that we're working on a new book.

00:42:46: maybe also let's use the couple of minutes to unpack your current research which is about countries like Armenia small states that operate politically under sustained external pressure.

00:42:57: I wonder what Armenia will tell us as a small country about this whole situation.

00:43:02: Do we see any patterns with other post-Soviet countries?

00:43:06: You mentioned couple of aspects, but i wonder if there is any singular pattern that it would maybe bring here compared to elsewhere and whether... Is this part for why the post-soviet trend was happening in Armenia

00:43:21: actually started?

00:43:23: I developed this interest in writing this book on small state agency after watching Armenia's very specific move to join international criminal court ratifying the Rome Convention.

00:43:37: Everyone thought there was a geopolitical suicide, and I thought Armenia is going to proceed with this.

00:43:43: People were afraid that this is a geopolitial suicide because in the same week that Armenia announced its intention To join international criminal court and ratifying all of the convention parliamentary politics—a process that it started several years before that— ICC issued an arrest warrant on Putin.

00:44:01: So the arrest warrant for Putin came And then Armenia announced It's going to ratify Rome Convention.

00:44:08: So I thought that many thought this is... This is insane on Armenia's part, but I thought that actually makes a lot of sense for Armenia to move ahead with this and That Russia pressure can be managed.

00:44:19: So that's how i started researching so.

00:44:21: I don't have a lot Of answers right now.

00:44:23: the I've done field work in Turkey In South Korea And I plan on spending.

00:44:29: With his last fulbright grant.

00:44:31: I planned on spending A month in japan But basically my argument Is that?

00:44:35: There's world order formation that is going On.

00:44:39: all these turbulence we see is very much going to be dependent on regional orders and middle powers in particular.

00:44:48: Turkey, the way Turkey relates to a smaller state than its neighborhood—we've talked about Russia —the way Japan and South Korea relate to smaller states in their neighborhoods.

00:44:57: so I think only one hand.

00:45:00: when you look at this small-state scholarship Armenia's current foreign policy trajectory makes a lot of sense.

00:45:06: So, Armenia is in the process of emerging from a peripheral state and Russia's imperial system to becoming one part similar small-state in world systems.

00:45:18: That's the transformation that is happening.

00:45:20: And in that context, small state security strategy require diversified foreign policies.

00:45:25: they require niche diplomatic engagement.

00:45:29: They are required.

00:45:29: look at Taiwan.

00:45:30: nobody can touch Taiwan because Taiwan is so central provides like over ninety percent of semiconductors for the global economy.

00:45:38: So building Armenia isn't a process of improving enhancing its position in a world economy.

00:45:44: TRIP is important, I view TRIPP in the context of small state strategy.

00:45:49: So i will know more and uh...in a couple months as I process my data!

00:45:55: I have an odd chance to go over my interviews.

00:45:58: And that's actually-I'll be starting doing it tomorrow after I finish this round or more precisely next week After the election is over.

00:46:06: so won't be obsessing about it.

00:46:08: Great..i'm really looking forward to the book to read because I'm really interested, as you said like the ages in small countries.

00:46:13: To see what is happening with the country or in your public.

00:46:17: and let me end on this bringing back elections once again And then finish the podcast.

00:46:23: so What do these elections tell us about a future of politics?

00:46:27: In places where security geopolitics and democracy are tightly

00:46:32: That is, you can write a whole separate book about it.

00:46:34: There are several new literature on it.

00:46:37: I do think that countries like Armenia...I think we already saw the democratic decline in Georgia Is very unfortunate and very sad And very dramatic but really indicates The challenges of building democracy In a heightened security environment Um..and this case um..in case of Armenia Russia because Armenia's Democratic Perhaps not consolidated captures the opposition space, opposition political parties.

00:47:03: And therefore makes it difficult and poor Armenian democracy to consolidate.

00:47:07: So I think that is a question, too always consider and look for.

00:47:11: at the same time i think The conflict with Nagorno-Karabakh in twenty twenty twenty three heightened awareness For people that we do need To take ownership of our state.

00:47:22: That legitimacy important?

00:47:24: In the push against the government even coming from electoral illiberal forces i think has a crystallized this political culture of constant, um keeping the government accountable constantly push pushing.

00:47:38: so i think that there are variety ways by which security can threaten democracy.

00:47:44: but i think our means democratic model is much more resilient.

00:47:48: simply because it emerged in a very tough Russia security orbit.

00:47:53: So, its a tried model Moving forward the major threat weak opposition political real organic opposition The temptation of the current.

00:48:02: if Pashinyan is elected and re-elected with big margin then possibility for Armenian democracy being stuck as single party democratic system.

00:48:12: That's not a good outcome for Armenia's democracy.

00:48:15: So if opposition is not going to develop, then Armenians continuously relying on civic society civil society to push against the government and there's new research emerging that actually more important than even political parties.

00:48:30: We're going to see civil society becoming more complex, we are going to trade unions forming professional associations forming and all of this is going be very important in keeping the pressure on keeping accountability over government and executive.

00:48:46: Anna thanks so much for your insights and ideas.

00:48:49: This really helps put the Armenian elections into a broader and more nuanced perspective.

00:48:54: And thanks to all of you for listening.

00:48:55: This was Round Table Oslo Koopa, the podcast of the Center For East European and International Studies Soys.

00:49:01: Thank You for joining us.